Research Working Papers

Methodology · computation

Monte Carlo simulation

4 papers

WP28

Beyond One-Step Distributed Maximum Likelihood: Local Bias Cancellation, Global Synchronization, and the Price of Inexact Curvature

A joint order–round frontier, its sharpness in an exact model, and measured communication costs

Simon-Pierre Boucher · UQO Working Papers · October 2026 · v1.0

Distributed maximum likelihood estimation trades statistical efficiency for communication. The paper studies a two-phase protocol in which each of K workers corrects the bias of its local maximum likelihood estimator by an r-th order split-sample extrapolation over nested sub-blocks, the coordinator averages the…

WP23

Beyond Hedonic Models: Spatiotemporal, Hierarchical and Probabilistic Architectures for Residential Real Estate Price Forecasting

A pseudo-real-time evaluation on 632,000 Quebec transactions and 82 local market indices, 2021–2026

Simon-Pierre Boucher · UQO Working Papers · October 2026 · v1.1

This paper asks whether new forecasting architectures improve residential price forecasts over strong conventional methods, and under which conditions. Using the audited Quebec land-registry sample of UQO Working Paper 22 (632,006 sales, 2021–2026) and its real-time quality-adjusted index vintages, it defines three…

WP22

SHARP-HPI: A Spatially Hierarchical, Adaptive and Robust Framework for Quality-Adjusted Housing Price Indices

Monthly municipal indices for Quebec from 770,000 registered sales, 2021–2026

Simon-Pierre Boucher · UQO Working Papers · October 2026 · v1.0

This paper develops and evaluates SHARP-HPI, a framework for monthly quality-adjusted housing price indices at the municipal level in thin markets. Stage one is a robust pooled hedonic regression with fine-scale location fixed effects, smoothly time-varying quality prices and provincial month effects; stage two models…

WP19

The Endogenous Housing Liquidity Premium: Search Frictions, Seller Urgency, and Price Discovery

Simon-Pierre Boucher · UQO Working Papers · October 2026 · v1.0

This paper studies how search frictions, heterogeneous seller urgency, financing frictions and bargaining jointly determine the liquidity discount, transaction prices, sale hazards and price dispersion in a local housing market. In a continuous-time matching model with free entry of buyers, sellers differ in a…