Working paper library

Beyond Hedonic Models: Spatiotemporal, Hierarchical and Probabilistic Architectures for Residential Real Estate Price Forecasting

A pseudo-real-time evaluation on 632,000 Quebec transactions and 82 local market indices, 2021–2026

Simon-Pierre Boucher · UQO Working Papers · October 2026 · v1.1

This paper asks whether new forecasting architectures improve residential price forecasts over strong conventional methods, and under which conditions. Using the audited Quebec land-registry sample of UQO Working Paper 22 (632,006 sales, 2021–2026) and its real-time quality-adjusted index vintages, it defines three…

Hedonic Housing Price Models for the United States: A Multi-Method Comparison of Parametric, Quantile, and Machine Learning Approaches

Simon-Pierre Boucher · UQO Working Papers · October 2026 · v1.2

This paper compares econometric and machine-learning approaches to hedonic housing valuation on 788,842 active Zillow listings covering all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, and asks how much of the machine-learning advantage survives when models must price homes in markets they have not seen. A semi-log…