Event study

The Hidden Dynamics of Used-Car Markets: Price Discovery, Inventory Liquidity, and Strategic Dealer Behavior

Evidence from a Daily Panel of 273,265 Quebec Listings

Simon-Pierre Boucher · UQO Working Papers · November 2026 · v1.0

The paper studies price discovery and liquidity in the Quebec used-car market with a daily panel of 273,265 dealer listings observed by the aggregator Auto-Ka between 12 August and 1 November 2026, with every asking-price change and listing disappearance recorded about seven times a day. Hedonic models with flexible…

Prediction Markets as Arrow–Debreu Securities: Evidence from Polymarket

State Prices, No-Arbitrage Bounds and Macroeconomic News in Blockchain-Based Contingent Claims

Simon-Pierre Boucher · UQO Working Papers · October 2026 · v1.1

Negative-risk events on Polymarket list one binary contract for every outcome of a decision and settle exactly one of them at one dollar, so that their prices are observable analogues of Arrow–Debreu state prices. The paper uses the five-outcome market on the June 2026 FOMC decision (146 daily closes, December 2025 to…

Does the Language of Artificial Intelligence Move Markets? A Semantic Analysis of Russell 3000 SEC Filings and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns, 2010–2026

Manel Kammoun, Djerrycharli Tandjambianda and Simon-Pierre Boucher · FIRC Research Papers · October 2026 · v2.0

This paper measures artificial-intelligence (AI) engagement in the SEC filings of some 2,500 U.S. listed firms (the current S&P 500 constituents and the holdings of the iShares Russell 3000 ETF) by embedding every passage of their Form 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings of 2010–2026 with a sentence transformer and scoring it…